Company name Facebook Inc
Stock ticker FB
Live stock price [stckqut]FB[/stckqut]
P/E compared to competitors Fair

MANAGEMENT EXECUTION

Employee productivity Good
Sales growth Good
EPS growth Good
P/E growth Poor
EBIT growth Good

ANALYSIS

Confident Investor Rating Good
Target stock price (TWCA growth scenario) $261.62
Target stock price (averages with growth) $288.28
Target stock price (averages with no growth) $129.85
Target stock price (manual assumptions) $262.97

The following company description is from Google Finance: http://www.google.com/finance?q=fb

Facebook, Inc. is focused on building products that enable people to connect and share through mobile devices, personal computers and other surfaces. The Company’s products include Facebook, Instagram, Messenger, WhatsApp and Oculus. Facebook enables people to connect, share, discover and communicate with each other on mobile devices and personal computers. Instagram enables people to take photos or videos, customize them with filter effects, and share them with friends and followers in a photo feed or send them directly to friends. Messenger allows communicating with people and businesses alike across a range of platforms and devices. WhatsApp Messenger is a messaging application that is used by people around the world and is available on a range of mobile platforms. Its Oculus virtual reality technology and content platform offers products that allow people to enter an interactive environment to play games, consume content and connect with others.

 

Confident Investor comments: At this price and at this time, I think that a Confident Investor can confidently invest in Facebook Inc.

If you would like to understand how to evaluate companies like I do on this site, please read my book, The Confident Investor. You can review the best companies that I have found (and I probably invest my own money in most of these companies) in my Watch List.

How was this analysis of Facebook Inc calculated?

For owners of my book, “The Confident Investor” I offer the following analysis (you must be logged in to this site as a book owner in order to see the following analysis). If you have registered and cannot see the balance of this article, make sure you are logged in and refresh your browser.
[s2If current_user_can(access_s2member_level1)]

In order to assist you in using the techniques of this book, the values that I used when calculating the Manual pricing above were:

  • Stock price at the time of the calculation: $169.47
  • Growth: 0.2
  • Current EPS (TTM): $4.6
  • P/E: 37
  • Future EPS Calc: $11.44
  • Future Stock Price Calc: $423.51
  • Target stock price: $262.96

[/s2If]
I hope that this makes you a Confident Investor.

NVIDIA Corporation [stckqut]NVDA[/stckqut] is driven by “specialized computing,” that is, the transforming of specific software tasks into physical silicon chips instead of depending on an ever-faster do-it-all CPU, or central processing unit. It has existed in some form or another for decades, but it has lately become the driving force behind pretty much everything cool in technology, from artificial intelligence to self-driving cars. Why? Because those CPUs aren’t getting faster at the pace they once were. Moore’s Law is dying.

Moore’s Law is the notion that, every two years or so, the number of transistors in a chip doubles. Its popular conception is that computers keep getting faster, smaller and more power-efficient. That isn’t happening the way it used to. “It’s not like Moore’s Law is going to hit a brick wall — it’s going to kind of sputter to an end,” says Daniel Reed, chair of computational science and bioinformatics at the University of Iowa.

As Intel and the other chip foundries spend fortunes to keep the wheel turning, chip designers across the industry are finding creative ways to continue at the old pace of Moore’s Law, and in many cases increase device performance even more quickly.

“Most of the advances today come from [chip] design and software,” says Nvidia chief scientist William Dally. “For us it’s been a challenge because we feel under a lot of pressure to constantly deliver twice the performance per generation,” he adds. So far, Nvidia has accomplished that cadence even when the size of the elements on the chip doesn’t change, and the only thing that does is its design, or “architecture.”

Here’s a less-than-exhaustive list of all the applications to which the principle of specialized computing has been applied: Artificial intelligence, image recognition, self-driving cars, virtual reality, bitcoin mining, drones, data centers, even photography. Pretty much every technology company that makes hardware or supplies it — including Apple, Samsung, Amazon, Qualcomm, Nvidia, Broadcom, Intel, Huawei and Xiaomi — is exploiting this phenomenon. Even companies that only produce chips for their own use, including Microsoft, Google, and Facebook, are doing it.

Many years ago, almost all computing was done with the CPU, one thing after another in sequence, says Keith Kressin, a senior vice president at Qualcomm. Gradually, often-used but processor-intensive tasks were diverted to specialized chips. Those tasks were processed in parallel, while the CPU did only what was absolutely required.

These task-focused chips come in a wide variety, reflecting the breadth of their uses, and the lines between them can be blurry. One kind, the graphics processing unit — think Nvidia and gamers — found wider use for tasks to which it’s uniquely suited, including artificial intelligence. Later on, the rise of smartphones created a gigantic need for another type, digital signal processing chips, designed to enhance photography, for example.

Source: How Chip Designers Are Breaking Moore’s Law – WSJ

Tech investors are a discerning bunch these days—a harsh reality that is pressuring Apple Inc. [stckqut]AAPL[/stckqut] more than it deserves.

In this yield-starved environment, stock investors are attracted to steady income. This would benefit Apple, except that like other former highfliers, it has been tossed out by investors. The iPhone giant’s shares have slid 6% this year and 21% over the past 12 months. While some of that is justified as iPhone sales have slowed, the selloff also looks overdone.

Much of the bearish thesis is due to weakening iPhone sales, which account for more than half of revenue. The iPad isn’t selling as well as it used to and the jury is out on the Apple Watch. Tech investors are allergic to anemic growth, which explains why the tech-heavy Nasdaq has lagged behind the Dow industrials and S&P 500.

Still, Apple has been punished more than enough. The iPhone slump appears priced in. And while the next iPhone, expected later this year, likely won’t be a significant upgrade, there is optimism that sales growth will soon bounce back. Analysts forecast iPhone unit sales will rise 5% for fiscal 2017, which ends next September.

Apple is the sort of stock that investors love these days. It plans to spend $250 billion on dividends and buybacks by March 2018, which would boost earnings per share and yield. Already, Apple’s 2.3% dividend yield is well above the 10-year Treasury yield.

Apple remains wildly profitable, too. Its $10.52 billion profit in the March quarter easily surpassed combined profits of Alphabet Inc. [stckqut]GOOGL[/stckqut], Amazon.com Inc. [stckqut]AMZN[/stckqut] and Facebook Inc. [stckqut]FB[/stckqut]

Source: Apple Is Ripe for a Rally

Company name Facebook Inc
Stock ticker FB
Live stock price [stckqut]FB[/stckqut]
P/E compared to competitors Good

MANAGEMENT EXECUTION

Employee productivity Good
Sales growth Good
EPS growth Good
P/E growth Poor
EBIT growth Good

ANALYSIS

Confident Investor Rating Good
Target stock price (TWCA growth scenario) $193.14
Target stock price (averages with growth) $213.15
Target stock price (averages with no growth) $96.41
Target stock price (manual assumptions) $193.75

The following company description is from Google Finance: http://www.google.com/finance?q=fb

Facebook, Inc. builds products that enable people to connect and share through mobile devices and personal computers. The Company enables people to share their opinions, ideas, photos and videos, and other activities. Its products include Facebook, Instagram, Messenger, WhatsApp and Oculus. Facebook is a mobile application and Website that enables people to connect, share, discover and communicate with each other on mobile devices and personal computers. Instagram is a mobile application that enables people to take photos or videos, customize them with filter effects, and share them with friends and followers in a photo feed or send them to friends. Messenger is a messaging application available for mobile and Web on various platforms and devices. WhatsApp Messenger is a mobile messaging application that is used by people around the world. Oculus virtual reality technology and content platform allows people to play games, consume content and connect with others.

 

Confident Investor comments: At this price and at this time, I think that a Confident Investor can confidently invest in Facebook Inc.

If you would like to understand how to evaluate companies like I do on this site, please read my book, The Confident Investor. You can review the best companies that I have found (and I probably invest my own money in most of these companies) in my Watch List.

How was this analysis of Facebook Inc calculated?

For owners of my book, “The Confident Investor” I offer the following analysis (you must be logged in to this site as a book owner in order to see the following analysis). If you have registered and cannot see the balance of this article, make sure you are logged in and refresh your browser.
[s2If current_user_can(access_s2member_level1)]

In order to assist you in using the techniques of this book, the values that I used when calculating the Manual pricing above were:

  • Stock price at the time of the calculation: $125
  • Growth: 0.2
  • Current EPS (TTM): $2.09
  • P/E: 60
  • Future EPS Calc: $5.2
  • Future Stock Price Calc: $312.03
  • Target stock price: $193.74

[/s2If]
I hope that this makes you a Confident Investor.