Big Tech can generate big numbers, but it was fast growth in the cloud business that helped ignite a buying frenzy Friday that drove up market values by nearly $139 billion in 30 minutes.

The stunning growth of the cloud businesses at Amazon.com Inc. [stckqut]AMZN[/stckqut] Microsoft Corp. [stckqut]MSFT[/stckqut], and Google parent Alphabet Inc. [stckqut]GOOGL[/stckqut] were a relatively small part of the strong quarterly results the three companies reported Thursday. But fast growth in cloud revenue, along with relatively stable service prices that helped profit margins during the quarter, gave investors reasons to bet the three giants could maintain their growth trajectories.

Shares of the three companies kept rising Friday, with their combined $147 billion market-value gain topping the value of more than 90% of the other companies in the S&P 500, including nearly every other company selling cloud-based software services.

Source: Tech Rally Is Juiced by Highflying Cloud Business – WSJ

Company name Alphabet Inc
Stock ticker GOOGL
Live stock price [stckqut]GOOGL[/stckqut]
P/E compared to competitors Good

MANAGEMENT EXECUTION

Employee productivity Good
Sales growth Good
EPS growth Fair
P/E growth Poor
EBIT growth Good

ANALYSIS

Confident Investor Rating Good
Target stock price (TWCA growth scenario) $1192.52
Target stock price (averages with growth) $1314.43
Target stock price (averages with no growth) $659.59
Target stock price (manual assumptions) $1207.31

The following company description is from Google Finance: http://www.google.com/finance?q=googl

Alphabet Inc. is a holding company. The Company’s businesses include Google Inc. (Google) and its Internet products, such as Access, Calico, CapitalG, GV, Nest, Verily, Waymo and X. The Company’s segments include Google and Other Bets. The Google segment includes its Internet products, such as Search, Ads, Commerce, Maps, YouTube, Google Cloud, Android, Chrome and Google Play, as well as its hardware initiatives. The Google segment is engaged in advertising, sales of digital content, applications and cloud offerings, and sales of hardware products. The Other Bets segment is engaged in the sales of Internet and television services through Google Fiber, sales of Nest products and services, and licensing and research and development (R&D) services through Verily. It offers Google Assistant, which allows users to type or talk with Google; Google Maps, which helps users navigate to a store, and Google Photos, which helps users store and organize all of their photos.

 

Confident Investor comments: At this price and at this time, I think that a Confident Investor can confidently invest in Alphabet Inc.

If you would like to understand how to evaluate companies like I do on this site, please read my book, The Confident Investor. You can review the best companies that I have found (and I probably invest my own money in most of these companies) in my Watch List.

How was this analysis of Alphabet Inc calculated?

For owners of my book, “The Confident Investor” I offer the following analysis (you must be logged in to this site as a book owner in order to see the following analysis). If you have registered and cannot see the balance of this article, make sure you are logged in and refresh your browser.
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In order to assist you in using the techniques of this book, the values that I used when calculating the Manual pricing above were:

  • Stock price at the time of the calculation: $972.08
  • Growth: 0.15
  • Current EPS (TTM): $27.62
  • P/E: 35
  • Future EPS Calc: $55.55
  • Future Stock Price Calc: $1944.37
  • Target stock price: $1207.3

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I hope that this makes you a Confident Investor.

My personal preference is that companies keep their stock price below $200 per share. My logic is simple: it makes it easier to evenly distribute your investment portfolio.

My balanced portfolio logic is quite simple. If you want to balance your portfolio quarterly between 10 great stocks, it is easier with lower-priced stocks. With a stock that is trading at $200, you can easily hold the correct number of shares to be within $100 (half the per share price) of the target value. With a stock that is trading at $1200 per share, the variance is now $600 which can easily throw off the balanced exposure for a small investor like most of my readers.

I discuss two types of portfolios on this site and in my book, The Confident Investor, which you can buy wherever books are sold. The more cautious portfolio suggests a target portfolio allocation for each purchase but is based on a fast-response momentum philosophy that moves that allocation to whichever stock is increasing in price at the moment. The stocks to invest in are chosen by the quality of the company and I list them on my Watch List. This portfolio regularly beats the market over time by at least 20% (if not 50%) regardless if the market is bull, bear, or flat.

The second type of portfolio is much more aggressive and often is 3X-4X the market increase in a bull market. However, it is not as safe in a flat or bear market. This strategy evenly divides a portfolio among 15 great companies that are growing their stock price faster than the others on my Watch List. I recalculate the top 15 and rebalance the portfolio quarterly.

In both portfolios, it is easier to balance the portfolio or allocate each portion of the portfolio if the stock price is under $200. When the stock is over $200, most investors that are working with a portfolio under $250,000 find themselves to heavy or too light in high-cost stocks.

You can see the performance of my version of both portfolios by reading my regular posts that are in the category Weekly Portfolio Gain. You do not need to have read my book to see these results although you may not understand how I create the list of companies.

Stock splits, once considered a way to keep shares affordable for mom-and-pop investors, are rare today as companies aspire to new heights.

Amazon [stckqut]AMZN[/stckqut], Google [stckqut]GOOGL[/stckqut], and Priceline [stckqut]PCLN[/stckqut] are recent examples of companies that have let their stock prices approach or exceed a four-figure price.

In the 1990s, when stock picking for one’s own account was in vogue, companies also considered splits a way to keep shares affordable for mom-and-pop investors. Even though nothing changes fundamentally about the company with a stock split—it’s like trading a dime for two nickels—splits used to generate excitement and, often, a short-term pop for the shares.

In recent years, though, individuals have gravitated toward index funds. And institutional investors don’t like stock splits, because increasing the number of shares increases their trading costs.

The godfather of the no-split camp is Berkshire Hathaway Inc. [stckqut]BRK.A[/stckqut] Chairman Warren Buffett. Berkshire’s Class A shares are the priciest U.S.-listed equities at the time of this writing. For years, Mr. Buffett said he didn’t want to split the shares because he didn’t want to attract people who found such a move to be a good reason for buying a stock. “People who buy for non-value reasons are likely to sell for non-value reasons,” he said in a 1984 letter to shareholders.

There are reasons behind the trend. Before the rise of discount brokerages and a decline in trading commissions in the 1990s, even small-time investors often had to buy shares in round lots of 100, which meant that a high price could make such a purchase prohibitively expensive. These days, though, retail investors can buy as little as one share, and often pay commissions of $10 or less.

Academics who have studied share splits have also posited that executives who split their company’s stock may be motivated by a desire to keep their share prices from looking expensive. Now, some companies and their investors seem to treat higher stock prices as a sign of accomplishment. Of course, this bragado is just as foolish as calling a $50 stock: cheap.

A fair concern is companies may have held off on splitting shares in recent years in response to the financial crisis, when stock prices dropped sharply and some big companies were humbled into performing reverse splits to raise their share price to avoid being delisted. Reverse stock splits are embarrassing and painful and of course being delisted is the equivalent of death in the stock market.

Amazon founder and CEO Jeff Bezos hasn’t ruled out the idea of a split, which the firm did three times as a young public company. A shareholder at Amazon’s annual meeting in Seattle on Tuesday asked Mr. Bezos if he would consider splitting the company’s shares to give members of the middle class and younger people the chance to afford the shares.

You can purchase my book wherever books are sold such as Amazon, Barnes and Noble, and Books A Million. It is available in e-book formats for Nook, Kindle, and iPad.

Source: Amazon’s Brush With $1,000 Signals the Death of the Stock Split

Ten analysts now predict Amazon’s shares will eclipse the $1,000 mark in the next year, and 13 others have price targets within 5% of that goal. Since I follow the company, I will be putting out my price recommendation in the next couple weeks.

Amazon is now the fourth-largest company in the S&P 500 by market cap, ranking behind only Apple, Microsoft and Google parent Alphabet. Its stock price is now setting new all-time highs above the $900 mark. Incidentally, after adjusting for stock splits, that $400 target on Amazon in 1998 equates to about $67 today.

Amazon’s soaring market value—up more than 50% in the past 12 months to more than $430 billion—allows founder and CEO Jeff Bezos to sell about $1 billion of his shares each year to fund his space exploration venture. But that hasn’t stopped Wall Street from seeing the stars. Ten analysts now predict Amazon’s shares will eclipse the $1,000 mark in the next year, and 13 others have price targets within 5% of that goal, according to S&P Global Market Intelligence.

Still, Amazon today isn’t quite the Amazon of old, trying to survive on razor-thin retail margins. Its fast-growing Web-services business has altered the company’s earnings and cash flow dramatically, as have other offerings. Brian Nowak of Morgan Stanley estimates that Amazon’s Prime membership, advertising and credit card programs generated about $9.3 billion in revenue last year and will grow to about $12.7 billion this year—all with a combined operating margin of around 70%. Helpful, as Amazon still needs all the fuel it can get.

Source: Amazon at $1,000, Wall Street’s Not-So-Bold Call