The market was pushed and pulled all day long, with most traders unsure of what to make of a surprisingly poor job-growth pace for March. By the time the closing bell rang though, the S&P 500 was at 2,355.54, down a mere 0.08%.

It was anything but a ho-hum session for CarMax, Inc [stckqut]KMX[/stckqut], AngioDynamics, Inc. [stckqut]ANGO[/stckqut] and Domino’s Pizza, Inc. [stckqut]DPZ[/stckqut] though. These three names dished out the most pain to the most people, albeit for understandable reasons.

Domino’s Pizza, Inc. (DPZ)

The end of the first fiscal quarter was only seven days ago, and already we’re hearing sales warnings about key companies.

Domino’s Pizza was today’s biggest victim on that front, with DPZ shareholders being cautioned by an M Science report that its domestic growth for Q1 would likely be “well below the rough consensus estimate.” Domino’s neither confirmed nor denied the rumor, saying it doesn’t respond to third-party prognostications. The market certainly responded though, sending DPZ to a loss of 5.8% for the day.

All will be revealed on April 27, when the company reports last quarter’s results. Analysts are expecting Domino’s Pizza to post income of $1.16 per share on revenue of $615.5 million. Both are up from year-ago figures of 89 cents per share of DPZ and sales of $539.17 million, respectively.

Company name Buffalo Wild Wings
Stock ticker BWLD
Live stock price [stckqut]BWLD[/stckqut]
P/E compared to competitors Good

MANAGEMENT EXECUTION

Employee productivity Poor
Sales growth Good
EPS growth Fair
P/E growth Poor
EBIT growth Good

ANALYSIS

Confident Investor Rating Fair
Target stock price (TWCA growth scenario) $134.22
Target stock price (averages with growth) $163.49
Target stock price (averages with no growth) $92.05
Target stock price (manual assumptions) $146.33

The following company description is from Google Finance: http://www.google.com/finance?q=bwld

Buffalo Wild Wings, Inc. (Buffalo Wild Wings) is an owner, operator and franchisor of restaurants featuring various menu items. The Company’s restaurants feature a bar, which offers a selection of 20 to 30 domestic, imported and craft beers on tap, as well as bottled beers, wine and liquor. The Buffalo Wild Wings restaurants feature various menu items, including its Buffalo, New York-style chicken wings spun in one of its signature sauces from sweet to screamin’ hot, which includes Sweet barbeque (BBQ), Teriyaki, Bourbon Honey Mustard, Mild, Parmesan Garlic, Medium, Honey BBQ, Spicy Garlic, Asian Zing, Caribbean Jerk, Thai Curry, Hot BBQ, Hot, Mango Habanero, Wild and Blazin’, or signature seasonings, Buffalo, Desert Heat, Chipotle BBQ, Lemon Pepper, and Salt & Vinegar. Its restaurants include a multi-media system, a bar and an open layout. It operates Buffalo Wild Wings, R Taco and PizzaRev restaurants, as well as sells Buffalo Wild Wings and R Taco restaurant franchises.

 

Confident Investor comments: At this time, I think that a Confident Investor can cautiously invest in Buffalo Wild Wings as long as the price is correct. Most of the fundamentals of this company are good but there are some concerns. I will be keeping Buffalo Wild Wings on my Watch List but I am a bit concerned that the company isn’t achieving my goals.

If you would like to understand how to evaluate companies like I do on this site, please read my book, The Confident Investor. You can review the best companies that I have found (and I probably invest my own money in most of these companies) in my Watch List.

How was this analysis of Buffalo Wild Wings calculated?

For owners of my book, “The Confident Investor” I offer the following analysis (you must be logged in to this site as a book owner in order to see the following analysis). If you have registered and cannot see the balance of this article, make sure you are logged in and refresh your browser.
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In order to assist you in using the techniques of this book, the values that I used when calculating the Manual pricing above were:

  • Stock price at the time of the calculation: $143.04
  • Growth: 0.11
  • Current EPS (TTM): $5.18
  • P/E: 27
  • Future EPS Calc: $8.72
  • Future Stock Price Calc: $235.67
  • Target stock price: $146.33

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I hope that this makes you a Confident Investor.

Company name Hansen Natural Corporation
Stock ticker HANS
Live stock price [stckqut]HANS[/stckqut]
P/E compared to competitors Fair
MANAGEMENT EXECUTION
Employee productivity Good
Sales growth Good
EPS growth Good
P/E growth Poor
EBIT growth Good
ANALYSIS
Confident Investor Rating Good
Target stock price (TWCA growth scenario) $132.91
Target stock price (averages with growth) $155.8
Target stock price (averages with no growth) $95.52
Target stock price (manual assumptions) $120.22

The following company description is from Google Finance: http://www.google.com/finance?q=hans

Hansen Natural Corporation (Hansen) is a holding company. Hansen develops, markets, sells and distributes alternative beverage. The Company’s category beverages brand names include Monster Energy, Java Monster, Monster Energy Extra Strength Nitrous Technology, Monster Rehab, Peace Tea, Hansen’s, Hansen’s Natural Sodas, Junior Juice, Blue Sky, X-Presso Monster, Vidration, Worx Energy, Admiral, Lost Energy, Hubert’s, Rumba, Samba and Tango. It has two segments: Direct Store Delivery (DSD), whose principal products consists of primarily energy drinks, and Warehouse, whose principal products consists of juice based and soda beverages. In March 2010, Hansen launched Blue Sky Shots, natural functional shots. In September 2010, the Company introduced a Blue Sky Free Blue Energy drink. In August 2010, the Company introduced Hubert’s Lemonade. In February 2010, it introduced the Fruit and Tea Stix product line. In March 2010, it introduced Admiral Iced Teas.

Confident Investor comments: At this price and at this time, I think that a Confident Investor can confidently invest in this stock.

Several times a year, a Confident Investor must reevaluate the companies in the portfolio. Keeping your money in a stock that no longer qualifies as a “Good” company can end up hurting your investment performance a great deal.  Also, there are a lot of Good Companies so losing the worst of the best is not going to impact the ability to have a balanced portfolio.  Over the coming days, this site will evaluate each stock on the Watch List.

 

Company name Hansen Natural Corporation
Stock ticker HANS
Live stock price [stckqut]HANS[/stckqut]
P/E compared to competitors Fair
MANAGEMENT EXECUTION
Employee productivity Good
Sales growth Good
EPS growth Good
P/E growth Poor
EBIT growth Good
ANALYSIS
Confident Investor Rating Good
Target stock price (TWCA growth scenario) $82.56
Target stock price (averages with growth) $71.03
Target stock price (averages with no growth) $46.99
Target stock price (manual assumptions) $68.34

The following company description is from Google Finance: http://www.google.com/finance?q=hans
Hansen Natural Corporation (Hansen) is a holding company. The Company, through its subsidiaries develops, markets, sells and distributes alternative beverage category natural sodas, fruit juices, juice blends, juice drinks, energy drinks and energy sports drinks, fruit juice smoothies and functional drinks, non-carbonated ready-to-drink iced teas, children?s multi-vitamin juice drinks, Junior Juice juices, Junior Juice Water and flavored sparkling beverages under the Hansen?s brand name. Hansen operates in two segments: Direct Store Delivery (DSD), whose principal products comprise primarily energy drinks, and Warehouse (Warehouse), whose principal products comprise primarily juice based and soda beverages. It develops, markets, sells and distributes energy drinks under the brand names, Monster Energy; Monster Hitman Energy Shooter and Lost Energy brand names, as well as Rumba, Samba and Tango brand energy juices.

 

Confident Investor comments: At this price and at this time, I think that a Confident Investor can confidently invest in this stock.