United Parcel Service, Inc. ($UPS) Cautious Buy or Hold to $156 Confident Investor Rating: Fair

Company name United Parcel Service, Inc.
Stock ticker UPS
Live stock price [stckqut]UPS[/stckqut]
P/E compared to competitors Good

MANAGEMENT EXECUTION

Employee productivity Poor
Sales growth Poor
EPS growth Good
P/E growth Good
EBIT growth Good

ANALYSIS

Confident Investor Rating Fair
Target stock price (TWCA growth scenario) $160.76
Target stock price (averages with growth) $221.8
Target stock price (averages with no growth) $189.18
Target stock price (manual assumptions) $141.21

The following company description is from Google Finance: http://www.google.com/finance?q=ups

United Parcel Service, Inc. (UPS) is a package delivery company. The Company delivers packages each business day for 1.1 million shipping customers to 7.7 million consignees in over 220 countries and territories. During the year ended December 31, 2012, it delivered an average of 16.3 million pieces per day worldwide, or a total of 4.1 billion packages. It serves the global market for logistics services, which include transportation, distribution, forwarding, ground, ocean and air freight, brokerage and financing. The Company has three segments: U.S. Domestic Package, International Package and Supply Chain & Freight. In February 2012, it acquired Kiala S.A. In February 2014, United Parcel Service acquired Polar Speed Distribution Ltd.
Confident Investor comments: At this time, I think that a Confident Investor can cautiously invest in United Parcel Service, Inc. as long as the price is correct. Most of the fundamentals of this company are good but there are some concerns.

If you would like to understand how to evaluate companies like I do on this site, please read my book, The Confident Investor. You can review the best companies that I have found (and I probably invest my own money in most of these companies) in my Watch List.

How was this analysis of United Parcel Service, Inc. calculated?

For owners of my book, “The Confident Investor” I offer the following analysis (you must be logged in to this site as a book owner in order to see the following analysis). If you have registered and cannot see the balance of this article, make sure you are logged in and refresh your browser.
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In order to assist you in using the techniques of this book, the values that I used when calculating the Manual pricing above were:

  • Stock price at the time of the calculation: $104.08
  • Growth: 0.17
  • Current EPS (TTM): $4.51
  • P/E: 23
  • Future EPS Calc: $9.88
  • Future Stock Price Calc: $227.42
  • Target stock price: $141.21

I hope that this makes you a better investor. [/s2If]

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